Analysis: Terrorist attacks in Tehran

Yesterday, 10 am IRST, 6 terrorist attackers had mounted simultaneous gun and suicide bomb assaults on Iran’s parliament building and the tomb of the republic’s revolutionary founder. Killing 17 people so far.

Terrorist attacks are extremely rare in Iran and people are not used to it. Last year, in the Ramadan month, police forces reported that they thwarted one of the biggest terrorist attacks targeting Tehran and other major cities. The last major attack in Iran was in 2010, in Sistan-Baluchistan, killing 39 people.

ISIS has taken responsibility for the attacks and released a footage showing inside of the Iranian parliament. The video begins with one of the attackers saying, “hold on!” in English and then shows both of them speaking Arabic saying: “Thank God, do you think we are leaving? No, we stay here.” Analysts say none of the attackers seem to be native speakers.

 

The video above shows a dead body, which is the body of one of the guards.

A lot of countries have condemned the terrorist attacks in Tehran, including Turkey, Afghanistan, Norway, Oman, and Sweden. But what is interesting is that the President of the United States hasn’t condemned the attacks yet, especially because of Trump’s history on condemning terrorist attacks even before they become official.

Everything is back to normal now, in Iran, but there are a lot of questions:

Why did this happen? How? And what will Iran do now?

One of the things that Iran’s government was very proud of, was the fact that Iran is stable in an extremely unstable region. Now it seems it isn’t so. Iran has always justified its interference in the region by saying that if Iran didn’t have troops in Iraq and Syria, Iran would be like Iraq and Syria. If four people holding guns and grenades can enter the building of the Iranian parliament, then Iran’s security is not as good as it claims to be. This is a cause of worry, for both the people and the government.

I believe Iran’s first move should be uniting itself. Iran has been divided ever since the elections, with Conservatives saying that ‘peace’ is impossible and Iran should not back down against USA and KSA, and Liberals saying that Iran should open its doors again and start new relations with countries in the region. Due to this, with the Liberal government currently in power, it seems that the Conservatives are trying to blame everything on Rouhani, the moderate-liberal president of Iran.

After the investigations are over, I believe they should make an important decision of either-

  • Keeping the current policies and deploying more troops in Iraq and Syria.

or

  • Changing the policies, and making new relations with countries in the region.

Iran’s religious leader and its army are Conservatives, and despite Hassan Rouhani’s government being a moderate-liberal government which wants to go for the second one, it’s more likely that Iran will be choosing the first path.

The majority in Iran clearly prefer the second path which they showed by electing Rouhani. So is Iran’s leader going to do what people want? Maybe. Iran’s regime is starting to understand that closing borders and isolating the country is not a progressive policy, which they showed by facilitating the nuclear deal. However, Iran can’t change its policies all of a sudden, as that risks making 16 million conservatives in Iran extremely unhappy.

In my opinion, Iran is going to keep deploying troops in Iraq and Syria, but they are also going to start working with other countries to destroy terrorists. Iran should work on its foreign relations as well, since a deterioration in KSA and Iran’s relation is possible, with a complete political and financial war between the two countries.

As I reiterate my point from my previous article, major changes in Iran’s policies seem impossible. However, Rouhani would definitely insist on having better relations with other countries, and if the leader agrees, we might see an improvement in the policies of Iran.

The bottom line is, although this is a sad day for Iran and world, this is not enough to change Iran’s regime policies. I feel it’s high time the administrators wake up and ensure any more horrific incidents like these do not happen again.

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